Do you participate in a weekly NFL pick 'em pool? If so, this article is for you. Below, we'll explore data-driven strategies that will give you a better chance to win your pick ’em contest or confidence pool in 2022.
Maybe you play in a small office pool or a big-money contest like the Circa Millions; maybe you may need to pick NFL or college football games; or maybe you pick straight up, against the spread, or using confidence points. Whatever the case, there is an optimal strategy for your pick 'em contest that will help you defy the odds and contend for prizes year after year.
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With young NFL quarterbacks like Trey Lance of San Francisco and Trevor Lawrence of Jacksonville potentially hitting their strides, and teams like Alabama and Georgia vying for college football supremacy, the 2022 football season should be an exciting one. Nothing is more fun than winning a football picks pool, though, so it pays to understand the tactics you can use to get an edge.
This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pick 'em contests. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have reported winning over $4 million in football pool prizes using their Football Pick 'em Picks and NFL Survivor Picks. They also offer NFL Betting Picks.
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NFL Picks Advice: Tips, advice for Kickers pick 'em pools
Maximizing your odds to win an NFL pool requires more than just figuring out the most likely teams to win each week. As crazy as it may sound, the ultimate goal isn't to tr Brett Favre y to get the most picks right.
In a football pick 'em contest, the ultimate goal is to maximize your chance to score more points than the rest of your opponents. Even if you only pick eight out of 16 NFL games correctly, for instance, you'll still win the week if no other entry in your pool gets at least eight picks right.
As a result, if you just pick all the same teams that the rest of your pool picks, you're probably not going to have the best chance to win. So, in addition to knowing which teams are the favorites and the underdogs, your best pick 'em strategy needs to incorporate other information about the context of your pool.
The strategy tips we list below are proven to work over the long term, and our subscriber results prove it. Winning a football pool is never easy, but as the seasons roll by, winning pools more often than expected should yield fantastic profits.
Four proven tips For winning football picks pools in 2022
1. Know your pick 'em pool’s rules and scoring system
It goes without saying that you should know all the rules of your pool. Nevertheless, few NFL pool players understand how much their pool's rules should impact their pick decisions.
If your NFL pick 'em pool offers big rewards for picking upsets, for example, take the time to fully understand the scoring implications. It might turn out that making lots of risky picks and only getting a couple of them right would still be expected to generate a higher score than picking a more balanced mix of favorites and underdogs. Rule variations, like whether games are picked against the spread vs. straight up or whether or not confidence points are used, also call for different approaches to pick strategy. In confidence pools, for instance, it often makes sense Shop Kids Accessories to concentrate your risk by giving high confidence points to one very unpopular underdog that has close to a 50/50 shot to win.
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2. Understand how many entries you have to beat
The more entries in your NFL pool, the more likely that a few players get very lucky with their picks this year, typically by having very good fortune on the upset picks they make. That's a problem because you still need to beat lucky players in order to win a pick 'em contest.
Big football pools
You need to take more risks on unpopular picks (especially slight underdogs) in large pools. In most years, this strategy won't yield a prize and might even lead to a finish in the bottom half of the pool. So what? From the beginning, your odds of winning a big football pool are very low. Even the best pick strategy in the world is only going to win a big pool once in a great while, so you just need to be patient and play for the long term. Being too conservative in a large football pool lowers your odds of winning a prize. You might end up with a solid score that consistently puts you in the top 20 percent of the final standings, but you probably never had a great chance to actually win the whole thing.
Smaller football pools
On the other hand, in a small football pool, no player might get particularly lucky this year. So, if you make too many upset picks, your odds to win an end-of-season prize can plummet. Many players think they need to make one or two bold upset calls every week, but in a smaller pool, that strategy can actually be counterproductive.
Our research shows that picking all the favorites in a small pool — especially early in the season — is sometimes the strategy that maximizes your expected p Tom Brady rize winnings. If you are in a pool with confidence points, you can then get some differentiation by giving more confidence to one or a few of the most unpopular picks.
The trick is figuring out what the ideal combination of aggressive vs. conservative picks is for your particular pool. Unfortunately, there's no simple rule of thu Tennessee Titans shirt mb. In order to figure it out, we built software that simulates millions of football pools, so we could test how different strategies fared in pools of various sizes. You can see how it works at the link below.
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3. Adjust for your pick 'em contest's prize structure
A pool’s payout structure is an often overlooked factor that you need to consider when you make your picks because you have limited time to get in the money. For example, assume you're playing in a 200-entry NFL pick ’em pool and the prize structure is winner-take-all. You’re in fifth place with three weeks to go, six or seven games behind the leader. In that scenario, unless the pool leader loses their mind and starts picking lots of crazy upsets over the last few weeks, you have almost no chance of catching them unless you start picking more upsets yourself.
The most likely outcome of that strategy? You drop in the standings, maybe not even finishing in the to Dan Marino p 50 by the end. However, it's still the right decision because having some chance to win a prize is better than having no chance. If the leader picks all favorites down the home stretch and you match their picks, it is literally impossible for you to catch them in the standings.
Many players don't understand this concept. In the final weeks of a pick 'em pool, they squander their small remaining opportunity to win a prize by picking too conservatively down the stretch. It may look like they are "hanging in there" in the standings, but in reality, their strategy gave them almost no chance to actually catch the leaders.
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4. Pay attention to how your opponents are likely to pick
The "end-game strategy" we just described is an example of how important New England Patriots clothes it is to think about the concept of game theory in football pools. If you get a pick right and almost everyone else in your pool gets it right, too, your odds to win the pool don't go up much at all. (The exception is if you're leading a pool with not much time left.)
On the other hand, there are often cases where you can take just a little bit of extra risk to pick a team that will be a highly unpopular pick in your pool. You'll also find cases where the public is underrating a team that is actually the favorite to win according to betting market odds, and picking that underrated team provides great value Carolina Panthers clothes .
Knowing when to fade the crowd and make these types of "value picks" is a critical part of winning football pool strategy. It's why we gather and publish national pick popularity estimates in our Football Pick 'em Picks product and why that data plays a big role in our customized pick recommendations to subscribers.
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Ready to get an edge in your 2022 NFL pick 'em pool?
To maximize your edge in a football picks pool, you need to consider the four strategy factors we reviewed in this post. Most players don't have the awareness, will, or skill to incorporate these strategies into their weekly pick making.
In their defense, it's not easy to do. Making the picks that give you the best chance to win a football pick 'em contest requires a lot of data and a lot of math. So, if you want an edge but prefer to outsource all the number crunching, we invite you to check out PoolGenius.
Whether you go it alone in 2022 or enlist our help, good luck in your pick 'em pools and we hope you learned something from this article. It always takes some luck to win a football pool, but the more skill you have, the less luck you need!
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